The International Criminal Court recently issued an arrest warrant against Sudan's president, Lt. General Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the first international arrest warrant ever issued against a sitting head of state.

Preliminary evidence linking the atrocities in Darfur to the government in Khartoum supports genocide charges against Bashir. But since the ICC has no police force, it is difficult to imagine how he will be apprehended.
For the time being, Bashir can most likely rely upon the might of the Sudanese state and its allies to shield him from prosecution. His political allies have threatened reprisals against the civilian population if the warrant is enforced. But clues to possible scenarios for his arrest can be found by examining the successful arrests of four former heads of state.
The key factor lies in the vicissitudes of political power among leaders who commit atrocities against their own people.
For now, Bashir remains in power. It is possible that he could present the arrest warrant as an outside threat in order to consolidate alliances at home and abroad; in fact, he has attempted to unify the African Union leaders against what he has described as the Western imperial threat presented by the ICC.
But in light of compelling evidence that he has committed genocide, even nationalistic African leaders are beginning to distance themselves from him, and his political rivals in Sudan smell blood.
The first ICC arrest warrant against a sitting head of state is an historic moment in international affairs.
To date, international lawmakers have had, at best, modest success deterring states from committing genocide.