Thursday, February 19, 2009

AFGANISTAN'S WAR IS A DIFFICULT CALCULUS

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan offered a grim view Wednesday of military efforts in southern Afghanistan, warning that 17,000 new troops will take on emboldened Taliban insurgents who have "stalemated" U.S. and allied forces.
Army Gen. David McKiernan also predicted that the bolstered numbers of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan about 55,000 in all will remain near those levels for up to five years.
With the added ground troops, McKiernan said it's possible the military will scale back airstrikes that have been blamed for civilian casualties and angered the Afghan population.
However, the announcement on Wednesday of a surge of 17,000 new US troops for Afghanistan illustrates the importance that the Obama administration has put on its strategy for south Asia, but a surge does not mean victory.
The government of Hamid Karzai has not been able to tackle Afghanistan's many problems including the Taliban insurgency, nurturing some kind of economic development to give valid hope to the population, and establishing closer central government control of the autonomous regions.
The Nato establishment running the international forces in Afghanistan is not happy with Karzai's performance and may not be ready to back him in the presidential elections this year, or at the very most it might offer tepid support.
The problems in Afghanistan are deep-rooted, and not easy to solve. The toppling of the Taliban government by U.S.-Nato forces was done in combination with the Northern Alliance, which brought a largely non-Pashtun government to power for the first time.
The Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and have provided the rulers of the country for centuries.
Historically Kabul had very light control over its regions occupied by the Pashtuns. The governors of major cities like Kandahar in the south, Herat in the west and Mazar-e-Sharif in the north have never paid much attention to the edicts from Kabul.
The end-game for U.S.and Allied Forces is a stable and democratic Afghanistan, with effective central government offering its population good education and economic opportunity.
Unfortunately this will not happen in the few years that a U.S-NATO mission has, so it will have to decide what bits of its agenda it can drop, and when it will declare its job done.

Source: Gulfnews.Com, Al Jazeera and Foxnews.Com

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