Winning P36 Kuala Terengganu is crucial to both parties, although this will not have any bearing on the power equation in parliament. No matter what happens here, a Barisan Nasional victory will not give it the two-thirds majority it lost on March 8 and Pas, if it wins, will only add one more seat to its current 21.
Regardless, the by-election, which should be called by the end of next month, is expected to be intensely fought with innovative campaign methods for morale-boosting purposes.
This is why Pas deputy president Nasharuddin Mat Isa is chairing the party's political bureau meeting tonight, in the absence of party president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang who is performing the haj.
Notices calling for a special Umno supreme council meeting on Wednesday have also been sent out.
The by-election is seen as a litmus test for both BN and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Rakyat coalition. As deputy prime minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak is, by tradition, in charge of the BN election machinery in by-elections. And, with the electoral battle coming just before he takes over the premiership, many see the by-election as a referendum for Najib and a fractured BN. Some also see it as a referendum for Pas, which was unable to wrest Terengganu from BN. The Islamist party lost control in 2004, after a mere one-term stint in power from 1999.
Najib, who was in charge of the Permatang Pauh by-election that saw BN thrashed and Anwar win a ticket into parliament and subsequently take the role of opposition leader, is out to prove himself for sure. If Pas wins, it means Pakatan can claim that it is maintaining its momentum after nine months in power in five states and winning big at the federal level despite some intra-party problems, particularly between Pas and DAP over the former's Islamisation agenda in Pakatan-controlled states.
If Pas loses, this could hamper its Terengganu faction's offensive against the rise of the progressive pro-Anwar group before the party elections next year. Pas under Hadi, who has full support of the ulama group, needs to win over a substantial number of voters in its strongholds of Wakaf Mempelam and Batu Buruk state constituencies to "top up" votes in Ladang, where the seat was won by a 31-vote majority, and in Bandar, which the Pas candidate lost to MCA state chief Toh Chin Yaw by 1,142 votes.
It also remains to be seen whether DAP, through its Kampong Cina branch in Bandar, will play its expected role in wooing the slightly over 10 per cent of Chinese voters in the parliamentary constituency. DAP leaders Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh have pledged to support Pas, while Kampong Cina DAP branch chief Ng Chai Hing went a step further to suggest another go for Mohamed Sabu. Mohamed, the Pas vice-president, managed 31,934 votes to Razali's 32,562 votes.
Independent candidate, grandmother Maimun Yusuf, 89, garnered 685 votes, proving to be a spoiler. Without her, the seat may well have gone to Pas. The late Razali's majority in March was slashed to 626 votes from the 1,933 vote he won against Pas' Dr Syed Azman Syed Ahmad Nawawi, now Batu Buruk assemblyman, in 2004.
It suggests that Umno will not have an easy time retaining this seat. Moreover, the infighting in Terengganu Umno is far from over as the supporters of former menteri besar Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh and those of his successor, Datuk Ahmad Said, are still at odds. The multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat has to woo the Chinese and also the Malay voters, who comprise 88 per cent of the electorate. Like Permatang Pauh, Kuala Terengganu is also a battle of personalities. Many will see it as another Najib versus Anwar fight.
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