SOLYMONE BLOG

TOP ECONOMISTS BELIEVE RECESSION IS OVER ?

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More than 80% of top economists believe that the recession that started almost two years ago is finally over.
But most don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come.
  • That's according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). The group asked 43 top economists last month if they believe the battered U.S. economy has pulled out of the worst U.S. downturn since World War II.
    Those surveyed include economists from leading Wall Street firms and major corporations, as well as from highly respected universities and research firms.
  • Thirty-five respondents, or 81%, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9%, believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they're uncertain.
  • Economists in the survey forecast that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3% in the three months that ended in September, though the official reading of gross domestic product won't be out for weeks.
  • And all of the economists surveyed expect the recovery to be slow and painful, leaving many people and businesses feeling the effects of the downturn for years to come.
  • The only organization that can officially declare the beginning or the end of a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research.
    But that group doesn't make any sort of declaration until months after the fact, in order to take into account final readings of various economic measures such as employment, income and industrial production. For example, the NBER didn't declare that the recent recession had begun in December 2007 until a full year after the fact.
Source: CNN
Posted by Solymone at Tuesday, October 13, 2009
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