Although the air war has so far claimed more than 400 Palestinian victims, and continues to inflict damage on Hamas — as well as, inevitably, on the civilians around it — Israelis believe the attacks have not yet delivered the deterrent blow they desired.
Nor did that change as a result of Sunday's strike that killed top Hamas political-military figure Nizar Rayan. Although the assault on one of the movement's most senior figures has been interpreted by Hamas as an intentional body blow — and may yet prompt a furious retaliation — Israeli officials did not characterize it as a "targeted killing."
Israel has made clear from the outset that its objective is to attain a cease-fire on its own terms that will last at least a year or two.
While they hope to weaken Hamas, Israel's leaders are aware that they're unlikely to destroy the organization, and among their primary concerns is to avoid getting dragged into a quagmire.
Destroying Hamas would take a massive invasion of all of Gaza, but it would also require an open-ended reoccupation of the territory, a trap Olmert and Barak will avoid at all costs.
Israel is also acutely aware of the diplomatic clock. The Israelis certainly want the operation over before Barack Obama enters the White House on Jan. 20, so as not to demand of him a crisis response to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
And the diplomatic moves already afoot by the U.S. and Europeans — and the mounting pressure on Arab regimes, including that of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, to intervene even if their unstated preference is to see Hamas hobbled — suggest that Operation Cast Lead's diplomatic window of opportunity will close a lot sooner. For all the above reasons, Barak and Olmert are wary of ordering the army in because they may not have an easy exit strategy.
But critics in the Israeli military establishment insist that even the limited goal of delivering a punishing blow to deter further Hamas attacks requires the Israeli military to get at close quarters with the militants, disrupting their structures and their chain of command and killing more of their fighters — even at the cost of Israeli casualties.
The longer the Israeli offensive continues, the greater the damage to all the Arab moderates the U.S. has been hoping to rally in an alliance against the likes of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizballah.
A cease-fire is the inevitable outcome. The closing days — however long they extend — of the Israeli campaign are principally about shaping its terms.
Source: TIME NEWS
Nor did that change as a result of Sunday's strike that killed top Hamas political-military figure Nizar Rayan. Although the assault on one of the movement's most senior figures has been interpreted by Hamas as an intentional body blow — and may yet prompt a furious retaliation — Israeli officials did not characterize it as a "targeted killing."
Israel has made clear from the outset that its objective is to attain a cease-fire on its own terms that will last at least a year or two.
While they hope to weaken Hamas, Israel's leaders are aware that they're unlikely to destroy the organization, and among their primary concerns is to avoid getting dragged into a quagmire.
Destroying Hamas would take a massive invasion of all of Gaza, but it would also require an open-ended reoccupation of the territory, a trap Olmert and Barak will avoid at all costs.
Israel is also acutely aware of the diplomatic clock. The Israelis certainly want the operation over before Barack Obama enters the White House on Jan. 20, so as not to demand of him a crisis response to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
And the diplomatic moves already afoot by the U.S. and Europeans — and the mounting pressure on Arab regimes, including that of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, to intervene even if their unstated preference is to see Hamas hobbled — suggest that Operation Cast Lead's diplomatic window of opportunity will close a lot sooner. For all the above reasons, Barak and Olmert are wary of ordering the army in because they may not have an easy exit strategy.
But critics in the Israeli military establishment insist that even the limited goal of delivering a punishing blow to deter further Hamas attacks requires the Israeli military to get at close quarters with the militants, disrupting their structures and their chain of command and killing more of their fighters — even at the cost of Israeli casualties.
The longer the Israeli offensive continues, the greater the damage to all the Arab moderates the U.S. has been hoping to rally in an alliance against the likes of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizballah.
A cease-fire is the inevitable outcome. The closing days — however long they extend — of the Israeli campaign are principally about shaping its terms.
Source: TIME NEWS
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